Should I place a bet at a lower odds than the tipster recommends? The importance of the minimum odds

camaleon leyendo

Our DoublesWin tipster writes us a few lines about the importance of the minimum odds and not betting below it.

Hello everyone!

Now that Roland Garros is approaching and this week there is little movement, I have taken some time to make a small explanation about how to predict regarding the probability - odds relationship and the importance of the minimum odds.

First of all, for those who do not know me, I'm a doubles ATP tipster. This is a common market offered by all bookmakers. In case of Pinnacle, they do not offer high limits. Because of that, most of my clients bet on soft bookies and sometimes find this bets with different odds. At that time, doubts appear about which is the minimum odds to which a bet would be profitable. That is why I have been encouraged to write this article and explain what is related to the minimum odds and how to predict  based on the odds - probability relationship.

Predict regarding the probability-odds relationship without knowing what will happen in the event

Even though nobody knows who will win a match, there are ways to make long-term money in bettng. How can you predict victories if you have no idea what will happen? It seems complex, but nevertheless it is very simple to explain. A clear example is seen in this event:

Djokovic vs Nadal (at the best level both)

Difficult to predict a winner, right? But, what do you think if one of them would be paid with odds 8? Even not knowing who wins that game, odds seems a profitable option. It is an exaggerated example and it will not happen but it is for the concept to be clear.

Now let's go with a more detailed analysis. I will evaluate two events in the Geneva 2019 tournament:

Daniel T./Fucsovics M. vs. Daniell M./McLachlan B.

Gonzalez S./Qureshi A. vs. Martin F./Mies A.

The first thing I will do is to estimate the probability of each pair winning. From there, I get the efficient odds that I think the bookie should offer.

As you can see, estimating a 32% probability of winning for Daniel / Fucsovics gives us that his real odds must be 3.13. For Gonzalez / Qureshi, I estimate 55%, so his fair odds would be 1.82. You can calculate it with the probability - odds conversion:

                                         Odds = 1 / winning probability* 100

If you place a bet with odds higher than fair odds with an adequate stake, you will be able to make money in the long term.

We can also determine how profitable those odds are reltive to the fair odds by seeing how much is the relative desviation between them. In the previous table, we calculate for the events, the fair odds and the odds whose deviation is 5% and 10% upwards:

              Odds5 = 1 / winning probability * 105 and  Odds10 = 1 / winning probability * 110

We have already done our analysis on these games. It remains to see the odds that bookmakers offer us:

Analyzing the Pinnacle offer, they offer Daniel / Fucsovics at 3.45, which is an odds 10% higher than the one we expected. It is a bet, that although I believe that they are not favorites, it will be profitable in the long term.

However, for Gonzalez / Qureshi, which for me are slightly favorites, they barely pay us at 1.73, far below what, for me, is the fair or efficient odds. Therefore, it is a bet that, although I believe that it will win even more likely than the other, for me it has no value.

The key is that the size of the odds, the times you win, compensate you for the losses of the bets you lose.

Respect the minimum odds

Why should you respect the minimum odds? Because you have the guarantee that you are betting over the odds that the tipster considers fair or efficient. Doing it below the minimum level will make you lose money in the long term even if you're betting on what the tipster told you.

The level of the minimum odds will depend a bit on the tipster. In my case, I calculate it 5% above the fair odds so that at least it generates a 5% yield in the long term according to my estimations.