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In this interview, this professional tipster reveals the secret of how he "cooks" his football predictions
• Who is BetsFutAmateur?
BetsFutAmateur is made up of two people, aged 30 and 28 respectively. Both linked to the world of football for many years, and with several connections, thanks to our carreers as players in different categories of Spanish football.
• When and how did you start betting?
My partner started in 2007, studying the ITF tennis market, following a well known tipster in a very popular group. And I started in 2010, making my first football bets, which was the sport I practiced. In my case, in those times I hadn’t even heard about the existence of tipsters.
• When and why did you decide to become a professional tipster?
In 2013 we became friends, when we got to play in the same team. We started to raise the possibility of betting together and studying the Third Division. We already had a thorough knowledge of several teams from different groups of the Third Division.
We shared all this knowledge and began our betting together. Seeing that we were doing well, we started to share our football forecasts for free through Twitter (@BetsFutAmateur). We gained popularity soon, thanks to our good results. From there, and to be able to offer a better service, we decided to become a professional tipster so we could dedicate our full time and resources.
• What is the secret of your work? Do you review the method?
The secret of our work is work, if you’ll forgive the repetition. Our dedication is practically the full working day, 7/8 hours daily.
We are becoming more professional and we have more resources for analysis, both human and computer. We have an in depth knowledge of all teams that participate in the Spanish Third Division. In addition, we have several informants in each group with streaming of everything that happens. But the key is to cook all this information and be able to translate it in picks. Many times these informants know about football, but they don't know the betting world and that’s where we come in to place, establishing the appropriate statistical methods that will mitigate this handicap.
During the week we study the games that we consider to be incorrectly estimated by bookmakers. We already know the market and know that they are overvalued or undervalued according to the markets and teams. The statistical study of the teams and the qualitative analysis of the informants are inputs for our method, which analyse all the information and according to the odds, our model will give us the most interesting picks.
Regarding the method, we are the most critical with it. We work humbly and without room for excessive relax or overconfidence. This is the only way to keep improving. We broaden the reporters every year, improve their knowledge about betting, have more calculators for analysis and, we ourselves, improve our analytical capacity.
• Last weekend was incredible! Was it the best weekend?
Yes, especially in the light of results, but the selection was not necessarily better than other days. What happens is that if you look week to week, chance has an enormous influence. We like to forecast high odds, since in our market there is usually better value in those selections and therefore yield will be higher in the long term. But that makes the win rate decrease even if the benefit rises. So we can make 3-4 selections of this type, where they are all lost sometimes. If we hit one the result is already positive, when we hit two or more the performance is fantastic.
• Could you justify this pick? The one you like the most and as far as you can...
Match: UE Castelldefels - FC Ascó
Pick: FC Ascó to win @4.20
Explanation: UE Castelldefels has a veteran team, with tall and slow players. It is a very predictable team in the offensive work and, in addition, the team has lost this season 3 good attacking players: Cano, Sergi Moreno (joined to FC Ascó) and Maldonado. They are focused on defensive work and short results to win, that is, they try not to receive goals and score a goal to win the match. At home, playing in a small field, they can put good teams in trouble as happened against Espanyol B on the previous weekend. This last weekend they encountered a team, Ascó, similar to them, not very ambitious, but with much more quality and strength than them. When two teams play the same game is when the difference of potential becomes more evident. Ascó is also a team that has maintained main players last year and has incorporated Sergi Moreno, who has well grasped the dimensions of the field, and since last year has scored many goals playing as local.
In addition, Castelldefels team started with a comfortable position while Ascó had more urgencies, needing to win so that top teams would not lead by too many points.
The match developed as we foresaw, not without suffering, with Ascó squeezing intensely and Castelldefels defending the best they could. There was even a goal cancelled and two shots in the post for Ascó. In 90’, precisely Sergi Moreno unbalanced the match scoring a goal.
• Is BetsFutAmateur one of the best tipsters on the international scene?
It is not we who should claim such statements, but our customers. We just try to be better and better. It is true that in these three seasons we have already accumulated a sample of picks quite large (> 2000) and the results are good. If you look for tipsters it is not easy to find a yield so high in a long sample of picks.
Even so, I think that in small markets it is easier to make profit and bookies, in the end, will limit your account. What really counts is long-term winning in the major leagues and Pinnacle. In our view, our fellow ProTraderBet, MyBasketPicks and Cardiffenio are exceptional tipsters because, although their yield is not so high, you can make profit all year with them betting high amounts and without suffering limitations.
• Getting away from BetsFutAmateur, what do you think about the InBetsment project?
The truth is that we are very happy. It is a project that is in constant evolution and besides being a reference in the national scene, it’s also penetrating the international scene. And all this thanks to good tipsters and the work of qualified professionals who, behind, make possible that foreigner players meet us. We are having a great acceptance outside of Spain, with many foreign clients.
In my opinion, it works very well in the main axes: good tipsters, good attention to them, good customer service, constant technological evolution and Marketing.
• What parameters define the best tipsters?
Buf! Good question. Surely, if you ask to 100 professionals for order 5 tipsters, they will do it differently. By this I mean that it is difficult to have a homogenous criteria. There are people who prefer yield to volatility, others who only want liquid markets and odds that do not drop...
The first thing I would like to say is that I do not follow a tipster until he has at least 500 picks in small markets or 1000 in big markets. The reason is that you can have good numbers in small samples due to a stroke of luck. In addition, I believe that the time that forecasting is carried out is also a factor because time helps you to mature and to know the market. This does not mean that there are no good tipsters with fewer picks. Only, that I can not guarantee they are good and so I do not follow them.
For me it is much better a tipster with 1500 picks and 10% than one of 300 picks with 20%. In fact the second, I would not follow at the moment.
Also, as I said before, you have to differentiate between two types of tipsters: liquid or small markets.
I particularly like the tipsters who have regularity in their results incurring in negative months only exceptionally. That is almost impossible in big markets since picks have less value in general. By chance, a bad streak will be more probable.
Another important factor is to provide a comfortable and orderly service. Customers must receive prior notice and the tipster give all the facilities so that their customers place the pick at advised odds.
• What would you advise a customer to enter this "betting world"?
What I advise any client that enters this world so fascinating, profitable and at the same time stressful, is that they meet the basic criteria of the good bettor. I think the InBetsment teammates have a great guide in their academy where they talk about it, but mostly I would mention three things.
First, always start with money that is not necessary to live in the short or medium term. You must use the money that if you lose it will not change your life for anything, it will not interfere with your routine or affect your way of being. Obviously nobody likes losing money, but you have to be very clear, if you start here, it’s because you have a surplus of money that you want to invest, just as you would with an investment in the stock market.
Secondly, always respect the guidelines that tipsters send you. We are what we are because we declare ourselves experts in different markets and sports. The customer should not analyze or judge the picks, instead he must be a "pawn" of the tipster. You must follow every step that the expert you have hired has indicated.
And the last advice and possibly the most important. Never lose the value of money. No matter how much you earn, you have to know how much each € you're earning is worth. The moment you lose the value of money, and place high bets for yourself, you will end up being the favorite client of bookmakers.
Following these steps the profitability is totally assured. Of course, this is not magic, you have to work it. It is not a throw-in in three days.
• Your opinion on the current situation of limitations
It's an answer that would take me hours. It is a theme that is dynamic in time, the bookie that limits today, tomorrow does not and backwards. It is about, at every moment, trying to adapt to the obstacles that bookmakers put us.
Currently, the picture is ugly since everything that is betting on smaller markets, bookmakers limit your accounts soon, bet365 mainly. The good thing is that there are other bookmakers where you can find those picks.
I believe that almost everyone has a similar version to how you must bet given the current situation: at first, when you have accounts in all bookmakers, bet on small markets with good tipsters that make you earn money at a fairly high speed. Try to go pulling the accounts of relatives and acquaintances while making a decent bank. Then later with a good bank and without accounts, follow tipsters of liquid markets in Asian bookies, where they do not limit winners.
At InBetsment would be something like starting with MarioBetsPRO, SquashPicks, PickNick and/ or BetsFutAmateur and, when you no longer have accounts and have made a good bank, turn to following Reddington, ProTraderBet, MyBasketPicks, Cardiffenio, Rugby15tipster, ThinkerOfBets, etc.
• A desire...
Obviously, that limitation will disappear.
