ES
EN
The selection of a forecaster should be done after a thorough analysis. Read this article and learn with us.
Below we will give some basic notions of the aspects that we believe that must be taken into account when choosing the best tipster for eachone. Before this, you have to answer some questions: what kind of professional do I need? What kind of professional do I want? Which is best suited to my needs and my life?
The first thing you should think is what type of player you are, what your account situation is, how much bank you have and what is your availability to bet.
You should follow tipsters who send most picks at an hour that is accessible to you and whose liquidity allows you to pick up the bets at a suggested odd. Remember that a drop of 10 cents in odds around 2.00 is a 5% drop in long-term yield, something that makes you lose the value of the bet.
Once you have selected those that fit your schedule, be picky about the yield but above all with the number of picks and, the bigger the markets, the more so. A betting expert with less than 400 picks may have a yield of 10-15% by chance. It's unlikely, but he may have done it perfectly. A tipster of 150 picks and 20% yield is very appetizing, but he may have been lucky. It does not mean that he has had it, but he may have had it, we cannot statistically conclude that he is a winner.
If you have a relatively small bank, 500-1000€, you will surely be a beginner player who still has accounts in the bookies where it is easier to win, those offering small markets. Hire a small market betting expert with more than 700-800 picks and a high yield (more than 15-18%). If he also give his picks live, better for you, since, as we said before, the accounts will last much longer and you can bet more, and have more bookies available to bet the picks.
Usually, there are markets that limit more slowly, so a good practice is to combine small and liquid market tipsters to lengthen the life of the accounts. The ones that will make you win more money are small markets tipsters, but the liquid markets betting experts in addition to making you win by themselves, will help you to stay more time winning with the first.
Another topic to keep in mind is the regularity of the results over time. A good statistic to see is the drawdown. There are more regular and stable betting experts than others. In small markets, if the tipster gives more than 50-60 picks per month, 90% of positive months should be required. The problem of bad streaks is that it is difficult to separate them between chance and poor selection, and usually bring mistrust in the figure of the tipster. The player usually leaves after the loss, and when he leaves the tipster recovers it without the player's bank having a chance to raise again.
Another topic to take into account is the number of picks per month that has a betting expert, there is no clear theory, but maybe the ideal is a forescaster that moves between 40-80 tips in large markets and between 50 and 200 in small markets. Few picks make it harder to amortize the subscription and there is more volatility of results month to month, caused by chance. Too many picks raises the suspicion of whether a bookie can have so many misfits within a month. However, there may be a very good tipster with 15 very well selected picks month by month and there can be another as good with 300 picks/month because he have a method to detect value in many sports.
Lastly, we have to quote the qualitative analysis of the picks that sends the betting expert. There are players who go beyond quantitative criteria such as those previously discussed. They like to look at the argument of the picks that sends a betting expert and according to that gives more or less credibility. It is a practice that we do not recommend, because you have to have a great knowledge of betting and about the sport to be able to doubt of an argument of this kind. In addition, it will always be that, opinion. The numbers are cold and roughly support the arguments of each of the picks in a sample.
In short, we could say that you must select those forecasters that suit your circumstances. The yield is of course one of the most important statistics to look at from a tipster, but perhaps it is overrated, since that yield is calculated taking into account the original odds. However, there are different factors why users sometimes bet something below that odds. This is the reason why the actual yield of the customer is sometimes below the official. In addition, other factors must be taken into account, such as if is easy to do his bets, liquidity, variance in the results (can be measured with drawdown), type of market in which he is betting, limitations, etc.
As you know, InBetsment has developed a score that values all these factors to give the betting expert a rating that reflects in a synthetic way the quality of the service. You can guide yourself with it if you want to compare two tipsters that you like.
